Ted Cruz warns Texas Republicans that his reelection is not in the bag

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, warned his fellow Texas Republicans on Thursday not to take his reelection for granted.

“Texas is a battlefield,” Cruz said. “It’s easy to be complacent. One of the real mistakes people make in politics is they have a recency bias. They say well, whatever things have been recently, that’s what it’s going to be forever.”

Addressing the Texas delegation breakfast on the last day of the Republican National Convention, Cruz said he is the biggest target for Democrats behind President Donald Trump. Cruz said that the 2018 Senate race, where former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, came within a 3-point margin, showed the power of Democrats pouring money into the race from around the country and the shifting demographics of the state.

U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, is challenging Cruz for his seat and going on the offense against Cruz more than O’Rourke ever did. Allred is already leading in fundraising — though fundraising usually grows exponentially closer to the election — and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee named Texas as one of its top flip opportunities.

Polls have shown the race to be close, though Republican confidence has swelled in recent weeks as Biden’s polling has plummeted and in the wake of an assassination attempt on Trump’s life that has rallied Republicans together. A recent YouGov poll commissioned by the University of Houston found Cruz ahead with 47% compared to Allred with 44%. The poll was conducted between June 20 and July 1, encompassing Biden’s latest debate with Trump that dealt a blow to the top of the Democratic ticket.

But Republican fortunes could flip if Biden steps aside as the Democratic nominee — which Cruz predicts likely — saying it will offer a media boon for Vice President Kamala Harris, he said.

“I want you to envision the billions of dollars of free media where they’re going to describe Kamala as the combination of Mother Theresa, Oprah and Gandhi,” Cruz said. “You’re going to hear that laugh so much you’re going to wake up at night.”

Cruz’s campaign has made it clear for months that they are taking the threat seriously. Cruz raised over $5.6 million more in the second quarter of this year than the first two quarters of 2018 combined. He predicted Democrats spending between $100 billion and $150 billion to unseat him.

He is concerned other Republicans are not feeling the same sense of urgency.

“Everyone says look, there’s no way you can lose. It’s Texas. You’re Republican. It’s a reelection,” Cruz said before pointing out that his 2018 race was the most expensive in U.S. Senate history. “Every crazy wild-eyed leftist in New York City or Chicago or San Francisco, they go online and they give to whoever’s running against me … Look, they are coming after us.”

Cruz also said he was “worried that we’re all over confident” with Republican odds up and down the ballot. Echoing the general jubilation at this year’s national convention, Cruz said that Republicans were much more unified than before behind Trump while Democrats were scrambling over whether to keep President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.

Allred’s campaign agreed that Cruz is vulnerable.

“By championing a statewide abortion ban that forces women to flee their state for lifesaving health care, abandoning Texans during a statewide freeze for a Cancun vacation and voting no on capping insulin costs — Texans know they can’t count on Ted Cruz,” Paige Hutchinson, Allred’s campaign manager, said in a statement. “Congressman Allred is building a broad coalition that will beat Cruz and give Texans the leadership they deserve in the Senate.”

The presidential race changes strategy this cycle relative to 2018, a midterm year, Cruz said. Democrats focused predominantly on turnout that year, when suburban voters across the country elected a spate of Democrats to Congress in response to the Trump presidency. Cruz pointed out Democrats more than doubled Democratic turnout that year to over 4 million compared to 1.5 million in Sen. John Cornyn’s 2014 race.

This year, Cruz said, Trump will drive turnout, meaning Republicans should focus more on persuading voters.

“Those voters who had been Republicans who moved away, we’ve got to go and say, Look, how’s this working out?” Cruz said. “Are you better off today than you were four years ago? And unless you happen to be a big tech billionaire or a Mexican drug lord … it’s been terrible.”

Cruz also said suburbs would be key to winning this year. Though suburbanites have historically voted Republican, they have shifted away from the party, delivering Arizona and George to Democrats in recent years. Both states are now represented by all Democratic or independent senators.

The overwhelming majority of Texans live in suburban or urban areas. Nearly 70% of voters live in either the Houston, North Texas, Austin or San Antonio media markets.

“We need y’all to talk to your friends, to your neighbors, to your sisters, to your co-workers

to a whole lot of women who in 2018 said, ‘Gosh, I don’t like Trump’s language’,” Cruz said. “Then Joe Biden came in and had open borders and suddenly they’ve got an MS 13 gang banger moving into the neighborhood and their kids are at risk. And they’ve got to ask how much exactly do you dislike mean tweets?”

Cruz’s speech was the keynote of Thursday’s delegation breakfast. It was a stark contrast to the last time he spoke at the breakfast during the 2016 convention where he defended not endorsing Trump on the main stage that year.