State water planners don’t use climate projections when they plan for future water supply. Experts say they should model for more extreme droughts rather than relying on historical data.
For more than a quarter of a century, Texas has diligently updated its state water plan every five years, a process designed to forecast water supply and demand 50 years into the future — and give communities enough warning about potential water shortages to do something about it.
That warning matters because water projects can take years — sometimes decades — to plan, finance and build.
For Corpus Christi and the rest of the Coastal Bend, it never came.
That’s because the planning process is built largely around past droughts — in fact, some regional plans still rely on the epic 1950s drought of record, the longest statewide dry spell in history. But some experts now say using historical droughts isn’t working because climate change is making droughts more frequent, longer and severe — raising doubts that yesterday’s worst-case scenario is also tomorrow’s.
That means the models that help secure money and political will for new water projects may be dramatically underestimating both future water needs and how quickly communities could face shortages.
“We need to be planning and developing infrastructure for the climate of 2050, the climate of 2100,” said Benjamin Cook, a climate scientist at Columbia University who studies drought in North America.
Nowhere were the weaknesses more evident than in Corpus Christi. A report released Wednesday by Texas 2036, a nonpartisan think tank that researches the state’s long-term infrastructure, population and economic needs, found that five state water plans adopted over 25 years sent conflicting signals about whether the Coastal Bend region, which includes Corpus Christi, could face shortages in the 2020s.
Some projected surpluses and others deficits. None provided a clear warning that the Coastal Bend needed to expand its water supply — which relies almost completely on drought-sensitive rivers and lakes — before the current crisis emerged.
This spring, years of drought threatened to leave Corpus Christi and surrounding communities without enough water to meet demand as critical reservoirs fell to historic lows. Businesses and residents were asked to conserve water. Industry threatened to leave. Cities issued disaster declarations and the governor threatened to take over.
Before summer rains eased the crisis, city leaders in March estimated that by May they could have to declare a water emergency — the point when the city has six months before demand exceeds supply.
“That’s a massive planning miscue from the water plans,” said Jeremy Mazur, the director of natural resources and infrastructure policy at Texas 2036, and the author behind the report. “What would have been the impetus to do anything to prepare for worsening conditions in the 2020s?”
Sarah Kirkle, director of policy and legislative affairs at the Texas Water Association, added that many of the state’s water models aren’t taking into account more recent drought data. “Worse than the 1950s” doesn’t always equal the “worst they’ve ever seen locally,” she said.
A 2023 law allowed regional planning groups to evaluate scenarios worse than the historical drought of record. But it didn’t provide money specifically to pay for updating the models at the heart of these water plans.
Source: Alejandra Martinez, The Texas Tribune
Photo Credit: Lake Corpus Christi’s water level had risen to nearly 92% of capacity on Aug. 15, 2026, after dropping to 10.6% six months earlier amid a lingering drought. Pete Garcia for The Texas Tribune
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