On the Republican side, Ken Paxton and John Cornyn were neck-and-neck and in position for a runoff, according to the poll from the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project.
Dallas U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett has a double-digit lead over Austin state Rep. James Talarico in the final days of Texas’ Senate Democratic primary, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
In the survey, fielded from Feb. 2 to Feb. 16, Crockett garnered the support of 56% of voters, while Talarico got 44%. For the Democratic primary, pollsters from the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project surveyed a sample of 369 voters, producing a margin of error of +/-5.1 points.
As in other polls, Crockett had a massive advantage with Black voters, drawing 87% support. The Dallas congresswoman also led among seniors and voters without a college degree.
Talarico had a narrow advantage with white voters — winning them by only 6 percentage points — while Hispanic voters were a virtual tossup, with Crockett leading by 4 points.
The UT poll comes on the heels of a survey by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, fielded in late January, that found Crockett leading Talarico by 8 percentage points.
On the Republican side, the UT poll found Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn running neck-and-neck, with neither candidate close to the 50%-plus-one-vote threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Paxton led with 36% to Cornyn’s 34%. Houston U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt was in third, garnering 26% of the vote.
The Senate Republican primary poll surveyed 350 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/-5.2 points.
Overall, the poll surveyed 1,300 registered voters, with an oversample of “verified primary voters” for questions about the 2026 primary elections. Such voters were defined as those with a verified history of voting in any of the last three primaries, and who then indicated they would vote in the Democratic or Republican primary if it were held today.
Fielded just before the start of early voting, the poll found the U.S. Senate candidates are relatively well-known, especially compared to other candidates running in statewide races. Fewer than 20% of voters said they did not know enough or had no opinion of Cornyn, Crockett and Paxton, while about a third of voters said the same about Hunt and Talarico.
Cornyn and Paxton were underwater by 8- and 10-point margins, respectively, in their favorability ratings, while Hunt had a narrowly positive rating. Both Crockett and Talarico had positive ratings, with net favorabilities of 10 and 18 points, respectively.
The poll also found U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin, and state Sen. Mayes Middleton, R-Galveston, were poised to advance to a runoff election in the open Republican primary to succeed Paxton as attorney general.
Roy led the pack with 40%, followed by Middleton at 38% — well within the margin of error of +/-5.7 points. State Sen. Joan Huffman, R-Houston, and Aaron Reitz, a former deputy attorney general under Paxton, stood at 9% and 5%, respectively. Paxton has endorsed Reitz in the primary.
Among the four candidates, only Roy was known by over 50% of voters.
On the Democratic side, former Galveston mayor Joe Jaworski led Dallas state Sen. Nathan Johnson, 52% to 28%, while attorney and former FBI agent Tony Box trailed with 10%.
In the governor and lieutenant governor’s races, incumbent Republicans Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick led their respective primaries against little-known challengers by wide margins. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, a gubernatorial candidate, and state Rep. Vikki Goodwin, who is running for lieutenant governor, were well over the 50% margin needed to win outright.
The poll also contained an auspicious result for Democrats running for Congress in Texas. The generic ballot found Republicans and Democrats tied in the race for U.S. Congress at 42% apiece.
Among Hispanic voters, the poll found Democrats winning 50% to 31% on the generic congressional ballot.
Source: Gabby Birenbaum,
Photo Credit: U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, right, answers a moderator’s question while state Rep. James Talarico looks on during their U.S. Senate Democratic primary debate at the 2026 Texas AFL-CIO COPE Convention in Georgetown on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026. Bob Daemmrich for The Texas Tribune via POOL
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