An Hinojosa win would be a political feat, but she wouldn’t inherit the power Abbott holds

If Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa manages to stop Abbott from securing a fourth term Tuesday, she’d be pulling off a consequential political victory. But she wouldn’t inherit the same level of power.

Abbott’s ability to manage state agencies is not due simply to statutory authority. His time in office allowed him to staff the agencies with Republican leaders aligned with his thinking, said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

Abbott has “historic levels of influence because of the combination of his tenure, the nature of his appointments, and his maneuverability,” Henson said.

Hinojosa would also likely face something Abbott’s never had to: leading an executive branch in a divided state government. While Democrats could also pick up some seats in the Texas House on Tuesday, Republicans are expected to still hold that chamber and the state Senate next year.

“Certainly, the governor always has a legislative agenda, but that agenda only comes to reality when members of the House and Senate introduce the legislation and actually pass it,” said Sherri Greenberg, assistant dean at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin.

The last time the governor’s office and both chambers of the Legislature were controlled by opposing parties was 1995. That’s the year when George W. Bush first moved into the Governor’s Mansion after unseating Democrat Ann Richards, Abbott was appointed to the Texas Supreme Court and O.J. Simpson’s trial played out on American analog television screens.

But with Hinojosa, now a five-term Democratic legislator, either leading or narrowly trailing Abbott in recent public polling, the possibility of a divided state government is stronger now than it has been in decades.

“If you have a Democratic governor who is, essentially, a lone ranger in Republican state government, the incentives for cooperation among Republicans is not going to be very high,” Henson said.

If Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin also ousts Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, that would give Hinojosa an ally overseeing the Texas Senate. But that chamber is all but certain to stay under GOP control next year. And much of the lieutenant governor’s powers are granted by a majority vote of senators each session, raising the prospect that Republicans could redraw the Senate rules to claim the office’s authority for themselves.

Control of the Legislature and executive branch by opposing parties was contentious in the past, Henson said, leading to many special legislative sessions — lawmakers’ version of overtime — as the two parties struggled to compromise on priorities.

When William Clements, a Republican, served two non-consecutive terms as governor in the 1970s and 1980s, Democrats dominated both chambers at the Capitol. Clements called 12 special sessions while in office, the second most of any governor and trailing only Perry,who called 13 during his three full terms.

Hinojosa has said her early priorities as governor would include a moratorium on new data centers, giving Texans a $1,500 check from the state’s savings, increasing teacher pay, replacing education commissioner Mike Morath and ending the state’s private school voucher program.

Hinojosa has laid out plans to use executive orders to shape state policy immediately upon taking office.

“Within an hour of taking the oath of office, I will declare a high-cost emergency in the state of Texas and issue an emergency executive order to: one, suspend the gas and diesel tax; and two, freeze electricity rates,” Hinojosa wrote in a statement.