The Austin Democrat, who won his party’s nomination in March, led Cornyn and Paxton in two successive polls, though he did not crack 50%.
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is leading both of his prospective Republican opponents in two new polls of Texas’ U.S. Senate race — though he falls short of the 50% mark in both surveys, suggesting the contest remains tight.
A poll conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research from April 17 to 20 and published Tuesday found Talarico leading Sen. John Cornyn by three percentage points, 44% to 41%. The Austin Democrat leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by a margin of five percentage points, 46% to 41%. Both results fell within the margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points. The survey included 1,865 likely general election voters. TPOR is a nonpartisan public opinion research group directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford.
In a separate poll, the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin found Talarico ahead of Cornyn by seven points, 40% to 33%, and of Paxton by 8 points, 42% to 34%. The Texas Politics Project surveyed 1,200 registered voters from April 10 to 20 and produced a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and in recent cycles, polls have routinely offered rosy projections for the minority party that are not borne out in November.
Still, Democrats are hopeful that President Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings, paired with backlash from Latino voters over the economy and the White House’s immigration policies, will create an environment more akin to 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within 3 points of unseating GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.
Cornyn and Paxton are competing in a May 26 runoff to be the Republican nominee for Senate and take on Talarico, who won a competitive primary of his own in early March. A handful of polls throughout the cycle, some nonpartisan and some sponsored by Democrats, have found Democratic candidates with narrow leads or within the margin of error in hypothetical general election matchups.
Closely watched by politicos around the country, Texas’ Senate contest already features the most expensive primary on record, with most of the money coming on the Republican side in support of Cornyn. The Cook Political Report considers the seat to be “likely Republican,” but the messy Senate Republican runoff, Talarico’s fundraising prowess and a wave of Democratic overperformances in special elections have both parties eyeing the race with heightened interest.
Cornyn and his supporters have argued the longtime senator would be a stronger general election candidate than Paxton in a cycle in which the national environment is expected to be tough for Republicans. Both polls published this week found little variance in how the two Republicans perform in hypothetical matchups with Democrats.
In both scenarios, Talarico’s support is heavily powered by voters of color, college-educated Texans and independents.
Among Black voters, TPOR found, Talarico leads Cornyn by 51 percentage points and Paxton by 56 percentage points. Among Latino voters, Talarico leads Cornyn by a 32-point margin and Paxton by a 27-point margin.
Independents broke heavily for the Democrat in both matchups: Talarico leads 51% to 29% among the group against Cornyn, and 53% to 28% with independents against Paxton.
The TPOR poll also found that more voters had a favorable impression of Talarico than those with unfavorable views — 41% to 34%, with the rest saying they were unsure. Meanwhile, Paxton and Cornyn are underwater by 10 and 15 percentage points, respectively, the two lowest favorability marks among all candidates in the survey.
The Texas Politics Project similarly found independents, voters of color, women, college-educated voters and voters under 65 breaking for Talarico over either Republican. Talarico had a net positive favorability rating of +10 percentage points — with 18% of voters saying they had no opinion of him — while both Paxton and Cornyn were in the negative by 9 and 12 points, respectively.
Most polling of the Republican runoff has found it to be a neck-and-neck contest or Paxton leading by single digits. A TPOR poll of the runoff, conducted April 6 to 7, found Paxton up by 8 percentage points.
Beyond the Senate race, both polls found Republicans leading in other statewide contests, including the high-profile race for governor.
In the TPOR survey, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott led the Democratic nominee, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin, 48% to 43%. Abbott led Hinojosa by 6 points — 44% to 38% — in the Texas Politics Project survey, with 13% of respondents saying they had no opinion.
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Photo Credit: From left: U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, Republican challenger and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic nominee for Senate and state Rep. James Talarico. The Texas Tribune
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