Wildfire activity across the state is expected to increase this winter and spring as above-normal vegetation dries and becomes highly flammable.
The dormant wildfire season, which occurs during winter and spring, is typically characterized by fire activity that occurs in freeze-cured grasses and increased wind speeds associated with passing dry cold fronts.
Above-normal grass growth across much of Texas in 2025 will support increased wildfire potential into early spring 2026.
Areas along and west of Interstate 35, including the High Plains, Rolling Plains and Southern Plains, have heavy grass loads that could support large, hard-to-control fires under dry and windy conditions. Exceptional grass loading in the Hill Country and Cross Timbers poses similar risks, while South Texas and the Lower Gulf Coast remain lower threat until grasses freeze-cure.
Texas A&M Forest Service wildfire response has trended 136% above normal from October 2025 through mid-January 2026, with agency personnel responding to 434 wildfires that burned 11,425 acres during this period.
“Wildfire activity has increased across the state, driven by underlying drought conditions and above normal grass production from last year’s growing season,” said Jared Karns, Texas A&M Forest Service Fire Chief. “With a La Niña climate pattern forecasted, Texas is expected to experience more conditions that favor wildfire activity more often.”
The Climate Prediction Center forecasts a La Niña pattern for early 2026, bringing warmer and drier-than-normal conditions to much of Texas from January through March. These conditions are also expected to increase wildfire risk during the dormant fire season.
“We are closely monitoring the increased likelihood of wildfire effective weather in Texas, including conditions associated with Southern Plains Wildfire Outbreaks,” said Luke Kanclerz, Texas A&M Forest Service Predictive Services Department Head. “These outbreak events have historically resulted in multiple large, high impact wildfires that can be difficult to contain and are an immediate threat to public and firefighter safety.”
Since 2005, wildfires that ignite under Southern Plains Wildfire Outbreak conditions represent only 3% of reported wildfires but have accounted for 49% of the total acres burned. Under these conditions, grasses dry rapidly and become highly flammable where even a small spark can ignite a wildfire that spreads rapidly.
Nine out of 10 wildfires in Texas are human caused. Texas residents are encouraged to stay wildfire aware. Avoid outdoor activities that could spark a wildfire during warm, dry and windy conditions. If a wildfire is spotted, immediately contact local authorities. A quick response can help save lives and property.
For information on the current wildfire situation in Texas, visit https://tfsweb.tamu.edu/wildfire-and-other-disasters/current-wildfire-status/
View the 2026 Dorman Fire Season Outlook: https://ticc.tamu.edu/Documents/PredictiveServices/Outlooks/TAMFS_2026_DormantFireSeasonOutlook.pdf
To stay current with fire environment conditions and fire potential, visit the weekly Texas Fire Potential Update at https://ticc.tamu.edu/Documents/PredictiveServices/Outlooks/texas_fire_potential_update.pdf
Article source and photo credit: Texas A&M Forest Service
